Chris Paradysz

Google’s Privacy Policy Has Changed

No shock there and what a brilliant move by one of the world’s most sophisticated and craftiest marketers. Simultaneous with delivering what will no doubt be a radically improved consumer experience, they will pull off what’s also best for Google and industry. They’ve carefully drawn the line between PII (personally identifiable information), which naturally and correctly creates all of the pundit angst, and anonymous PII which commercial enterprise has successfully dumbed down to a simple, pain-free, four-letter word: data.  This is “Synergy” at the highest order, where three constituencies all benefit from ubiquity without inflicting long-lasting damage. 

Short-term suffering is always part of a more frictionless society but, over and over again, consumers have voted with their fingers and wallets.  The anti-piracy pressure applied two weeks ago was a much more stunning victory than Romney beating Gingrich in Florida. But, the story is long gone.  Despite the power of digital marketing for commercial entities to make good on threats by shutting down their websites, people proved they care more about convenience and efficiency than a just price for easy access to what copyright laws portend to protect.  Facebook’s $80-$100B IPO valuation will be another affirmation that the privacy train left the station a long time ago.

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7 Predictions for Holiday 2011

Where are customers hiding? Or are they?

1.  Those who don’t have to do without, won’t.  Luxury spending is on a steep rise despite the down economies in the US and Europe.  Three years of a deep recession and 9%+ unemployment aren’t dampening the spirits of the bulls-eyed 1%.  Even NY State’s Governor Andrew Cuomo won’t hit the millionaire wallet and handbag.  States need every taxpayer they can get.

2.  Ecommerce, the at-once General Admission concert seats and genteel private entrance, will continue to capture increasing growth and wallet-share.  Led by search online and directed increasingly to handheld devices and tablets, consumers at home get the guilty pleasure, special discounts, free shipping and radically improved shopping experiences that they rarely get after sitting in traffic to get to their favorite retail store.

3.  Brands that integrate their marketing channels will win.  Consumers think they are already.  Most aren’t.  Those that don’t may not see what’s happening underneath their sales numbers given the likely positive Holiday growth numbers.  Like most consumer-led disruption, though, future declines won’t be polite.  Just ask NetBook manufacturers and the company trading under the symbol NFLX (Netflix).  Click here for the latest in multi-channel whitepapers.

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Black Friday is Now Thursday

Walmart just changed the game.  Let the madness begin.  Deals and bargains now start on Thanksgiving night at 10pm.  Best
Buy and Target are lined up right behind them rolling deals into staggered
timeframes.  Toys, clothes and home accessories are up first then, electronics at midnight and general consumer goods on Friday at 8am.

Ecommerce is about to reset its search bid rules to react to
consumer’s expectations although not for all products and brands, notably
Luxury.  Electronics and apparel will have no choice, especially
consumables and commoditized products, in my opinion.  Dayparting search
optimization is about to take on a new life when you consider that researching
will now start earlier which will impact site conversions related to new buying
patterns.

Will Cyber Monday and Tuesday stay the top sales
performers?  My bet says yes, but the curve is certainly going to flatten
over Thanksgiving weekend as opposed to historical, spikey high-peak
days.  Whether all of this generates incremental, new customers and demand
is the ultimate question.

We’ll know more in two and a half weeks.

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Why Social Media Isn’t Replacing Email

The following article was featured on DIGIDAY:DAILY on March 15, 2011.

If you believe everything you read, social media is ready to take over the world. Facebook now has 600 million members, Twitter’s valuation is at $8 billion. You’d think this would destroy old-school communication vehicles like email. You’d be wrong.

Look no further than the current belle of the ball, Groupon. Sure, it uses social media in its group-buying service, but the main driver of its business remains email. There are many other examples of strong digital businesses built off this backbone: Daily Candy, RueLaLa, Thrillist and Gilt. Maybe they don’t have the sexiness of a badge like Foursquare, but what they have is mass…email mass. Only email has the proven ability to drive sales at meaningful, high-volume scale. It might be fashionable to declare email is dead; it’s also dead wrong.

Social media is influencing people’s buying behavior, no doubt, but its ability to generate sales demand is still suspect. For driving revenue today, it’s little more than a niche play — and looks like it will remain that way for some time. Email, however, is generating very real impact at roughly 10-15 percent of 2012’s $165 billion in ecommerce sales. That’s about $25 billion at the top end, just in this sector. Ask a retailer like J. Crew what’s more important to it, email or Twitter?

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Using the Four Pillars of Optimization to Recapture Online Market Share

The following article appeared in Chief Marketer on February 11, 2011.

In many market sectors, the traditional retailer is under siege. Take the apparel sector. Discounters such as Overstock.com, flash-sale sites like Gilt Groupe and Rue La La, fast-fashion players including Century 21, massive marketplaces such as Amazon, and fashion blogs like The Style Rookie have created a treacherous landscape for apparel retailers, which can no longer expect offline-branding or retail-footprint alone to adequately secure their online fortunes.

An apparel retailer, or any other type of merchant, that has its marketing and branding efforts siloed and is not evaluating its integrated business is at risk of losing its place in the online discussion.   

Case in Point: “Men’s Fashion”

Before you dismiss this as alarmist, let’s look at a simple example: men’s fashion. This is a good benchmark, as most menswear customers look primarily to retailers to inform their fashion choices. But of all the listings on the first page of Google for “men’s fashion,” only two are retailers.

The threat here is not that content sites such as GQ or About.com are taking control of the men’s fashion discussion, but rather that a straight affiliate play like www.mens-fashion-tips.com could capture more natural-search attention than Armani or Ralph Lauren or even Lands’ End.

These results, of course, are an algorithmic byproduct. Search engines aren’t editorial, so they typically do not favor one site over another for content reasons. They focus on how well the site matches their interpretation of quality and relevance for a particular search query. So why did only two retailers show up on page 1 for this query? Because the apparel merchants let it happen. They have ceded their voice in the search discussion for “men’s fashion.” 

As we dive deeper and narrower with search terms such as “men’s pants,” we see a much more retailer-focused environment, with Kohl’s, Macy’s, Banana Republic, and Gap among the diverse merchants appearing on the first page. And while the term “men’s pants” is still a very broad query, it does express significant intent to deeply engage with pertinent content.  And, at this level of query, the retailer rules the day. Why?

For the top-level query, such as “men’s fashion,” the eventual desired destination of the searcher is unclear. It is hard to tell if that searcher wants to learn more about men’s fashion, see videos about men’s fashion, or shop for men’s fashion. Over times, however, search engines have learned that the average search for “men’s pants” yields a click through to a retailer.

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Retail Digital Marketing: The Merchandise Buyers are the Heroes

Office of a Tie Buyer

Nothing brings innovation to digital marketing like getting inside the product and understanding what the head of merchandising is thinking about long before it hits the stores, the web or the catalog.  Even in this just-in-time retail world, decisions about what to buy happen long before consumers see the results of what‘s on that buyer’s mind.  And, most marketers miss it, too.  They’re too caught up with campaign plans and deadlines to stop the noise long enough to listen.   

I’ve always said that real listening is a contact sport.  Certainly with marketing, listening is far more important than talking.  Spending an hour with the people who make the calls on what people want is like hanging out with a musician while they’re writing a song.  It’s as gut-wrenching as deciding what note will be the first to hang on a clean piece of staff paper. 

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Back-to-School Retail: Anxious Moments

The NPD Group says that teen spending is up 6-8% over last year.  And, they’re buying what’s typical: fashion, lifestyle, electronics.  I want to believe it, but I still don’t like what I’m seeing, reading and hearing about Back-to-School and the Fall 2010 retail season.  Although the Discount/Variety store sector continues to have busy stores and monthly positive trends, there is much hand-wringing in the specialty and department stores.

The BTS period is highly compressed but is a harbinger for the Fall and Holiday seasons.  With 09 comps so challenged as a benchmark but most having improved performance in 1st and 2nd quarters this year, many retailers bought product aggressively.  And, of course, orders have already been placed for the balance of the year.  Not surprisingly, we’re seeing pre-season promotions well before prior years.  Check out the Washington Post article about Target, Toys R Us and Sears “Black Friday” sales.

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Oil Spill Disaster: What It Could Mean for Ecommerce

Disclaimer: I’m not a meteorologist or have any expertise in oil spills or environmental disasters.  But, I can read.  Because the story is still evolving, the truth is clear.  Video doesn’t lie.  Even BP admits to pretty much what the environmentalists say.

Every day, the impact hits me a little bit harder, but it’s cumulative.  It seeps into my daily business thoughts.  I’ve been calling this an economic disaster since the day it happened.  Ground Zero:  April 20, 2010.

Estimated Oil Spill as of 4/22/10

An acquaintance and client, Jerry White from the Landmine Survivor Network (now Survivor Network), calls landmines ‘weapons of mass destruction, one at a time’.  The BP calamity falls into the same category.  Most Americans can’t see it, touch it, watch it, or even imagine it.  Less than 10% of the population has direct access but 100% of us are going to feel it.  It will reverberate and seep into the economy in an insidious way starting with Wall Street and, then, onto Main Street.

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Creative Must Play a Critical Role in Marketing Strategy

The iPad.  Google this, Google that.  Yahoo/Bing.  Rue La La.

Finally, amid the fierce competition in direct marketing, those who create and tell the stories — the imaginative creative voices — are gaining back their seat at the solution table.  And, they should.  Media, marketing, technology.  None of it will spark interest if consumers are not first engaged, then captivated.  It’s the work of the designers, the writers, the artists, that capture that moment.

Strategy and creative are twins and need to live side-by-side, breathing life into ideas. With communication as complicated as it is today, the message must be seamless and integrated.  That can’t happen without intimacy, and intimacy happens best when there is a shared sense of purpose and priority.

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How Do You Take Your Growth: Super-Caffeinated or Regular?

In Digital and across channels, 2010 has brought with it something we haven’t seen since 2007: investment growth.  Businesses are investing in building their customer base and growing top-line. The range is from cautious (3%-5%) to modest (5%-7.5%) with a few on the aggressive edge (+10%), but there is no more positive a sign than businesses putting cash back into their future.

Whether it’s the realization that expense cutting won’t grow profits, or investor pressure — private equity, venture capital or otherwise – for valuation and distributable cash increases, it’s all good for marketing.  Depending on which group you’re listening to, private equity and venture capital investing is back in vogue and 4Q 2009 trends showed more deals than in the prior nine months.  And, early stage venture capital is, again, finding its way into web 2.0 and 3.0 technologies which are early bellweather indications for the durability and sustainability of the investments.

Based on last month’s eTail show, Shop.org, this week’s SES conference and a recent technology summit I slipped into while staying in a NYC hotel, the number of exhibit hall booths from new companies is surging.  Most won’t survive, but they’re pushing the status quo even at Google where new offerings are accelerating at an astonishing rate.  Do check out the beta of Google’s new Search Funnels that allows advertisers to see through brand-assist keywords’ connection to trademark terms.

Although not an exhibitor anywhere, a new fave and current fascination is Polyvore, a voyeur’s fashion website birthed in 2007 with Matrix Partners, Benchmark Capital and Harrison Metal venture capital.  While The New Yorker calls it “The world of virtual Anna Wintours”, I prefer Polyvore’s VP of product management’s description: “Our mission is to democratize fashion. To empower people on the street to think about their sense of style and share it with the world.”  It’s passion, in a category that’s anything but casual, a user-generated content engine, on a social media platform, with easy-to-use tools where users can buy what they create (or, a look someone else designed), right now.

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