The facts, the stats, and the true in-the-trenches business experiences from 2009 now tell us a lot about what to expect for 2010. Below is a quick review of some of the key things online marketers should look for in the coming year.
A Slow Recovery
There will be continued slow recovery in US consumer spending, especially for large purchases due to a lack of discretionary cash (not income, per se), increased savings rates and a general adjustment to this new “now”. 2008 changed buying behavior to a “no”-first shopping mindset and 2009 cemented a value-only, thrifty approach. 2010 won’t change this. Unemployment, under-employment and slow-growth for the private sector are the engines that are choking back substantive improvements in consumer confidence. While there are certain job sectors re-igniting hiring, most industries will only begin to replace the attrition they forced during the lean 2008 and 2009.
Pent-Up Demand from the Jet-Set
For the super-wealthy demographic, expect that luxury items will be back in vogue as pent-up demand for jewelry, cars, homes, boats, fashion, at today’s reduced costs, increases. Unfortunately, this is unlikely to offset the dramatic fall-off seen from the much larger affluent group that accounted for much of the demand growth during the run-up to the recession.
Personal Fulfillment for the Rest of Us
The definition of discretionary has changed relative to consumer purchases and buying behavior. Where, pre-recession, this meant items people didn’t need but wanted, the recession and its epic duration have people focused on their hobbies and passions to relieve stress and to add back pleasure in their lives. No longer considered discretionary, these hobbies and their related items and services have become part of the indispensable. I anticipate revenues from home improvement, home-based interests like gardening and exercise, and passion hobbies like crafts, music, fishing, etc. stay in vogue and continue to capture wallet share.
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PM Digital’s latest Rewind report has been released with a look at paid search performance for apparel retailers during the 2010 Spring fashion season. And the news was very good. Consumers shopping online for apparel increased their total paid search demand by an impressive 33 percent over the same months in 2009. Even better, apparel marketers achieved this swell in demand from February through April with a modest increase of 2 percent in year-over-year spend, revealing that search ad dollars went further this year than they did at the same time last year, with CPCs falling by -1 percent.