The BTS period is highly compressed but is a harbinger for the Fall and Holiday seasons.  With 09 comps so challenged as a benchmark but most having improved performance in 1^st and 2^nd quarters this year, many retailers bought product aggressively.  And, of course, orders have already been placed for the balance of the year.  Not surprisingly, we’re seeing pre-season promotions well before prior years.  Check out the Washington Post article about Target, Toys R Us and Sears “Black Friday” sales.

This economy has consumers very nervous and anxious.  What we’re getting is pretty much what we were promised by the Fed a year ago.  Now that the movie has been playing for over two years, the lead actors would still be named, ‘Erratic’ and ‘Volatile’.  ‘Unpredictable’, at least, doesn’t  need top billing.  Even last week, Paul Volcker, economic adviser to President Obama, gave his own unvarnished version:  “This is not a bounce back.  We are suffering from some very large, undermining problems.” (Note that he didn’t say ‘underlying’ which is way too vague.)

US State Budget Shortfalls - Click to Enlarge

Consumer confidence, housing starts are disappointing, but the oil spill and, now, Bush’s tax cuts and more state money-grubbing is grabbing the home and front pages.  Anderson Cooper from CNN is still working the back stories, but economy news stories like these are a drag on people’s perceptions and, no doubt, trickle back into buying behavior. 

Clever promotions are helping to woo parents and kids to open their wallets, but they’re shopping like the predictions said earlier in the year that consumption would be of the necessity variety, with an occasional sprinkling in of a special or luxury item.   Hot teen brands like Abercrombie, Aeropostale, J Crew, Juicy, Delias, Urban Outfitters, Wet Seal and others will release their July numbers soon, so we’ll have a good look inside then.

Regardless of the tea leaves and what actually happens, consumers will remain reluctant spenders.  Intriguing, fresh and new products matched with the right touch of incentives and promotions need intense focus.  And, I think we need accelerated thinking right…about…now.

With retailers and parents alike getting ready for back-to-school shopping, it’s a good time to remind ourselves of the need to do our own homework as marketers. We’ve written before about third-party keyword research tools, which are irreplaceable for competitive research but also a considerable financial investment, especially for small to mid-size companies.  Happily, anyone can use one of the best, deepest data resources available for search trends completely for free.

Cram Session:  How to Use Google Insights for Search

Google Insights for Search is essentially a souped-up version of Google Trends, the search engine’s simple report on “Hot Topics” and “Hot Searches.”  Beyond merely finding out what’s hot right now, the Insights tool offers the ability to analyze historical search patterns.  You can track searches as far back as 2004 (further even than most paid tools) and quickly grasp the seasonality of particular keywords as well as entire market segments.  Note that you’ll need to log into any Google account (you probably already have one via Gmail) to access certain features, like indexes.

First Assignment:  Use Daily Data to Show How Early Back to School Searches Start

With the fall semester on our mind, let’s take a look at what data Google has for “back to school” searches.  We entered that term in the Insights for Search tool, then applied a filter to show only U.S. queries in 2009 for the key months of July through September:

First, we see that in 2009, searches continued to build up to a peak on Monday, 8/24.  A second peak date of roughly the same magnitude is also revealed on Tuesday, 9/8 — the day after the Labor Day holiday.  Perhaps recession-weary consumers were seeking after-season, inventory-clearing discounts.

2009 – Same As It Ever Was?  Looking at Year-over-Year

The obvious follow-up question is, how typical was last year?  How well does 2009’s peak week represent back-to-school seasonality in general?  To find out, we added in the prior years of 2008, 2007 and 2006 and compared:

At first glance, we notice that the latter spike in September 2009 gets flattened when averaged with other days that same week, while the earlier main peak is still visible. Second, we notice that three of the four years peaked during the third week in August, but that 2008 looks like the odd man out, peaking a week too early.  Or did it?  Actually, because Labor Day came early that year (September 1), the pattern remains the same.

The takeaway?  Google Insights for Search data confirms that for the last four consecutive years, back-to-school interest peaked exactly two weekends before the traditional end-of-summer holiday, even when that holiday moves around.  Good to know if you’re planning summer sales strategies for school supplies, backpacks, laptops or teen apparel.

Smarter Searching:  Back to School Coupons

We know from experience that coupon-related searches have been gaining in popularity.  So let’s use Google Insights for Search to help us dig a little deeper and see whether coupons play a role in this season too.  If we chart “back to school coupons” from June to September, year over year, you’ll see similar growth, especially in 2009.  We also see that these searches have been starting earlier every year.

Let’s Pack It Up:  What every student needs for Back to School

For our final exploration, let’s see what Google Insights for Search has to say about a crucial product term for this season.  Let’s look at the chart for “backpacks” vs. the generic “back to school” phrase:

Since at least the start of 2009, “backpacks” interest has tracked so closely with generic “back to school” interest that the two concepts seem practically synonymous.  (Of course, you might not need Google data to tell you this if you’ve got a Jansport-burdened teen at home.)  Also:  “backpacks” searches pick up earlier and peak two whole weeks before generic “back to school” searches.  Naturally, this comparison can be done in Google Insights for Search with any number of product terms to help devise one’s strategy for the season.  So whether you’re selling backpacks, laptops or skinny jeans to this market, or to any market, remember what you already know to be true:  your situation is unique.  Test, test, test.  Optimize, optimize, optimize.  Research, research, research.  And when you can do it for free, even better.

Summer “Save-Cation”

Hasbro has been having a “frugal fun” dialogue with its customers all summer. Their “Summer Save-Cation!” series was first tracked in early July with a message telling families how – in lieu of renting a beach house or buying a pool – they could have backyard fun with just a garden hose and a Hasbro Super Soaker. Similar emails followed, ranging from “Backyard Warriors” (buy a Nerfoop instead of sports tickets) to “Girls Rule” (a mother and daughter spa day at home with dad in the kitchen).

All-in-all, it was a nice series that played out like a helpful summer-long chat. And while each email ended with a plug for Hasbro toys, most items did, in fact, represent economical alternatives for family fun.

“Save-Cation” Goes Back-to-School

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Hasbro’s latest email moves the conversation to post-summer, but holds on to the empathy and money-saving advice. Launching from the fateful day when parents receive their child’s school supplies list, Hasbro marks out “Summer” from their old headline and calls it instead “Back-to-School Save-Cation!”

The new email body starts:

“Now it’s official. If you’ve gotten the school supply list, a new season has begun… School Season.”

And then (emphasis added):

“The end of summer doesn’t mean the end of saving, from clothes to supplies there are lots of ways to save. Check your local yard sales for lightly used clothes, make a list and shop around for deals on supplies, and thrift stores may have that perfect ‘new-to-you’ bookbag.”

Of course, Hasbro knows of one school item that is typically not as desirable “lightly used”:

“PLAY-DOH is probably on that supplies list, here’s your first chance to save on school.”

A link takes customers to a variety of Play-Doh offerings, baited with a “Free Case of Colors” premium for buying $25+ of Play-Doh products.

For Consideration

Needless to say, the Hasbro email is not a typical retail message, but there are a few takeaways for any marketer to contemplate:

• Think of the micro-events in your customers’ lives. Plot a course looking for smaller triggers leading to bigger events, similar to Hasbro’s “school supplies list”. One of email’s greatest strengths is timing, and capitalizing on that means more than promoting limited-time sales.
• Even one product can create relevancy. Play-Doh is one of the toy maker’s few back-to-school products, but the email still works due to the overall strength of their brand.
• Advice and tips can help build a stronger, deeper customer relationship. This is especially true in tough times, but similar applications (beauty tips, recipes) have worked well for other categories.

Glenn Lalich is VP of Research & Analysis at PM Digital.

We’ve been watching for months to get the inside track on Fall/Holiday. Walmart is ubiquitous on the engines but their search copy isn’t dragging in buyers with special offers. Nor is Sears, Target, Macy’s, JC Penney or other big-boxers. Old Navy is the one stand-out going for marketshare with 40% off. I’m hopeful this stays the exception. Retailer’s p/l’s can’t take another bloodbath 2nd half. With less inventory and a year’s worth of vendor concessions, operating margins need less topline price pressure to get their profit souls back.

A quick call-out on Garnet Hill…we’ve not seen them promote in the back-to-school category, certainly not with non-brand keywords. There’s not much noise around them, so I’ll bet they’re seeing some nice gains.

The BTS market is going to heat up over the next 10 days, so we’ll know more by Labor Day but it’ll all be over. I’m rooting for the consumer. They’re showing up, but we’ll see how long their memories are for those killer deals last year.

Chris Paradysz is CEO of PM Digital.