From years of tracking promotions, we know that free shipping incentives have risen steadily across all consumer retail sectors.  On the offline side, our MarketTrends studies show that 24% of apparel catalog campaigns included a free shipping incentive in 2009, up from 21% in 2008.  Similar growth was seen in non-apparel catalogs.  

For online, the story has been much the same, but the data is more telling. In addition to retail competitive activity, search data also helps us gauge consumer interest and intent with regard to free shipping.  And today’s shoppers are very interested in free delivery, and more so every year.  

General Searches for Free Shipping     

Below is the five-year trend for searches on the term “free shipping”. While the year-end holidays are the peak season, it’s clear that such searches have grown steadily year-over-year, accelerating significantly in recession-plagued 2008 and 2009.    

Google searches for “free shipping”    

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Smarter Searches:  Actionable Information    

Searches strictly on the term “free shipping” are by far the most common, but two popular variations are “free shipping coupon” and “free shipping code.” While the search volume for the simpler “free shipping” is much higher, the “coupon” and “code” variations have seen their own dramatic rise. What’s most significant about these terms is that they show how more searchers are seeking actionable information regarding free shipping, specifically the code needed for checkout.  This type of growing search sophistication is even more pronounced in the next section.  

Google searches for “free shipping coupons” and “free shipping codes”    

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Even Smarter Searches:  Bypassing Offer Restrictions    

It’s not uncommon these days to hear how years of retail doorbusters and price wars have made consumers savvier and conditioned to expect phenomenal deals.  There’s truth in that to be sure, but the relentless compile/share nature of the Internet itself has played the biggest role in creating consumer fluency in all things marketing.  It isn’t just that today’s consumer is smart; they keep getting smarter.   

As an example, two of the most common free shipping stipulations used by retailers require spending a specific amount of money or buying a specific type of merchandise in order to qualify for free shipping.  Correspondingly, over the past two years there has been a new (admittedly tiny) surge in folks seeking out non-restrictive free delivery offers with searches like “free shipping no minimum” and “free shipping everything”.  

Google searches for “free shipping no minimum” and “free shipping everything”    

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Holiday-Specific Searches for Free Shipping   

Free shipping has become an important enough part of the online shopping experience that it increasingly shows up tied to significant gift events — sometimes general occasions (“free shipping birthday”) but mostly for specific holidays.  “Christmas free shipping” (not charted here) is by far the biggest and has increased year-over-year.  But growth can be found for other gift-oriented holidays as well.  The next chart shows the steady growth of free shipping searches tied to Spring holidays.    

Google Searches for “easter free shipping”, “mothers day free shipping” and “fathers day free shipping”    

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Free Shipping and Brands    

Free delivery tied to brands also continues to rise.  Below are examples for Macy*s, Sears and Wal-Mart.   

Google searches for “free shipping” plus brand name    

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Brand-related searches speak to more than just general consumer research.  The searcher may have enjoyed past deals with a given merchant or be comparison shopping.  But brand-specific free shipping searches can also be influenced by other marketing vehicles and channels, like email and direct mail.  Whatever the case, we know from our own experience that “free shipping + brand” can perform well for online retail.  Any marketer that has a free shipping offer planned for the future should investigate leveraging a brand plus incentive combo for paid search.  

A note about this post:  All of the charts above are drawn from Google’s suite of trending tools (Insights for Search, Trends for Websites etc.) This is a highly recommended resource for anyone interested in online consumer trends.  Google doesn’t offer the depth and breadth of tools like comScore or Hitwise (both of which are used regularly by PM Digital), but it’s a wonderful, easy-to-access option for getting a quick test read on new ideas and pet theories.  Best of all, it’s free!    

Glenn Lalich is Vice President of Research & Analysis at PM Digital.    

     

I sat in on a good session from Hitwise Research Director Heather Doughtery this week that looked back at Black Friday 2008 and offered some preliminary stats for Black Friday 2009. The findings are fairly predictable and mirror what we know from our own data:  consumers are researching earlier and looking for deals.  The bigger question for this season is to what degree the economy and unemployment will accelerate the thrifty, marketing-savvy behaviors already in play.  Below are a few takeaways:

Black Friday searches start earlier each year. Per Hitwise, early “Black Friday” searches in 2006 started the week ending 9/30; for 2009 those same searches started the week ending 8/8.  At this rate, “Christmas in July” may lose its oxymoron status by next year.  Of course we’re talking searches, not purchases.  But unless a retailer is sitting on headline-grabbing price reductions for late in the season, capturing mindshare early is crucial.  Consumers need to know where the good deals are coming from, and a retailer may have to expend more effort now if they haven’t laid the groundwork already.

Black Friday sites receive the most traffic from “Black Friday” searches. This may seem like a shoulder-shrug finding, but the key players are worth a closer look.   Per Hitwise, deal aggregators like BlackFriday.info and bfads.net received over 60% of “Black Friday” search traffic in 2008.  Thus far in 2009, the audience for these sites has skewed female, younger (under 35) and less affluent (under $100k), but looking at historic trends for the full holiday period, Black Friday deal sites are also gaining ground with the 35+ crowd.  For retailers interested in local search, it’s also notable that Black Friday website visitors in 2009 are indexing highest east of the Mississippi – especially in states like West Virginia, Kentucky and Missouri.

Searches are growing for “Black Friday” terms tied to retail brands. Searches for branded “Black Friday” terms (e.g. “walmart black friday”) grew 41% between 2007 and 2008.  This is most notable for big box retailers with mega brands and deep pockets, as “Black Friday” terms can be pricey.  For others, there remain good SEO and content opportunities for capturing “Black Friday” searches tied to brand.

With regard to social media, the only 2008 data Hitwise noted was that 3% of traffic to Black Friday deal sites came from social networks.  I would say that if any significant new variable exists for Black Friday 2009, it will come from platforms like Facebook and Twitter.  Both have the ability to distribute special alerts and coupon codes quickly to an existing (and hopefully growing) group of retail fans and followers.

Of course the biggest unknown this holiday season are consumers themselves.  Times are tough.  It remains to be seen how much money folks will spend related to all those Black Friday bargains they’ve been busily researching.  No amount of third-party click data can answer that question quite yet.

Glenn Lalich is VP of Research & Analysis at PM Digital.